Monday, June 18, 2012

Brilliant post by Barry Ritholtz

We rarely do this on the Goldrock blog...a place where we try and express our proprietary brilliance and thoughts. But I saw a blog post by a financial commentator from Bloomberg and CNBC - Barry Ritholtz - from my brother - Ben Ram. the post is called Unless & Except. I couldn't have said it better or funnier myself, so here is the text:

Yeah! The Greeks Voted!
For the Xn-th time, important events took place in Europe that either did or did not resolve an impending crisis, one that is either imminent or not.
This was absolutely and unequivocally crucial, unless it didn’t matter at all. Either of which is an equally likely outcome.
Indeed, this past week was absolutely critical, except that it wasn’t. The Greek elections determining their future relationship to the EuroZone was simply of the utmost importance, unless, as it turns out, it was not.
Yes, they did not matter; No, it was quite important. Unless it was the other way around. In which case it did/didn’t was/wasn’t important.
The ‘mother of all central bank interventions’ is going to save Europe, unless it doesn’t, in which case it is back to square one for the EU. Everything has changed, except that nothing is different. Nothing has changed, except for everything. Unless it wasn’t, in which case it was. (Glad I got THAT off my chest).
We also are closely watching the fiscal responsibility issue, which as many of you know is the single most important issue ever, except for the past half century, when it didn’t matter at all. This has been resolved once and for all, permanently and completely, by postponing it yet again.
Then no, not so much.
Here in the States, the upcoming Fiscal Cliff is the most important issue of our time, except it has never mattered and is likely to be resolved without incident. Unless not, in which case, so sorry about that credit outlook downgrade.
Indeed, this is the most important election of our lifetimes, except for all the other ones. They were super important, except not.
This week’s FOMC meeting will reveal whether QE is imminent, which it is, according to those who know. Unless its not, which is equally as likely.
Operation Twist could be extended. Or expanded. Or canceled. Unless not.
The Fed will be releasing their announcement at 2:15 on Wednesday. Unless like last time, they are late, in which case it will be 2:30. Ish.
This will cause another Risk On rally as traders anticipate the Fed’s action, unless it doesn’t, as traders don’t. And if they don’t, or in case the Fed doesn’t. Or won’t. It starts to get fuzzy around this juncture.
The key is not whether they won’t or didn’t, but more importantly, were anticipated to have done of of those, which is of course dependent upon how slavishly you are devoted to the proper usage of past verb tenses. Which as this writing implies, I am not.
More importantly, you must be on the look out for rumors or reports that may or may not be true and do or don’t matter. Or not.
In which case yes, thank you, I will have another.
I hope this clarifies the state of things . . .

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